Trump Impeachement? How Real Is it?

[TNG]

Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives

 

You might have heard about the recent and extensive media coverage regarding the "impeachment" of President Donald Trump, but how accurate is it? Is it real to begin with? What are some of the possible scenarios that could occur as an outcome if such impeachment occurs? This will be all discussed in this blog impartially without any bias for either side of the story.

 

The Beginning:

 

This all started on the 24th of September, 2019 when Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, initiated an impeachment inquiry against US President Donald Trump. The inquiry began after revelations that President Trump & other top administration officials allegedly pressured the leaders of multiple foreign nations to advance his own "personal political interests" (source). In the case of Ukraine, which has been the media's main subject the past couple days, according to statements made by the former Ukrainian presidential advisor Serhiy Leshchenko and an anonymous lawmaker, this involved a threat to withdraw foreign aid and cease communication with the nation if they did not discuss a future investigation of Trump's political opponent Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden.

 

Pelosi initiated the inquiry after a whistleblower report was released which alleged: "an ongoing widespread abuse of power, and then cover-up, by the U.S. president and administration officials during his presidency in order to advance his personal interests.". This whistleblower report was based upon the testimony of more than "half a dozen U.S. officials.", according to the New York Times. A copy of the whistleblower report can be found here. We will not derive much into the report itself, however that will be left for you to judge. There were a handful of legal opinions regarding this report, some of who reported it to be subjective and lacking a legal ground, some of who reported it to be the end of Trump's era.

 

On September 26, the whistleblower's complaint, which indicated that calls with Ukraine were held on special top-secret servers, was released. Here are some of the "bombshell claims" that were included in the complaint:

 

• Trump used the power of the presidency to pressure Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to interfere in the 2020 election by launching an investigation of Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, who had served on the board of a Ukraine company.
• Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, was a “central figure” in that effort, who reached out to and met with key Zelensky advisers.
• Officials told the whistleblower that Ukrainian leaders were led to believe that a meeting or call between Zelensky and Trump would depend on whether Ukraine’s president “showed a willingness to ‘play ball’ on the issues” that Giuliani was raising.
• Attorney General William Barr appeared to be involved in the effort to get Ukraine to cooperate with Trump’s desire for a probe of Biden.
• White House officials were “deeply disturbed” by a July 25 phone call Trump had with Zelensky. There were discussions “with White House lawyers because of the likelihood,” in the minds of officials, “that they had witnessed the President abuse his office for personal gain.”
• Senior White House officials intervened to “lock down” records of the call with Zelensky, which “underscored to me that White House officials understood the gravity of what had transpired in the call.”
• White House lawyers directed White House officials to remove the electronic transcript of the Zelensky call from the computer system where such transcripts normally are stored. That transcript then was loaded into a “separate electronic system” that is otherwise used to store and handle classified information of an especially sensitive nature. “One White House official described this act as an abuse of this electronic system because the call did not contain anything remotely sensitive from a national security perspective.”

 

The Democrats:

 

An overwhelming majority of members of the House of Representatives supported an impeachment inquiry into President Trump, we'll put down numbers below sourced from the New York Times.

 

 

	Support an impeachment inquiry	No, not now, or undecided	Awaiting response
Democrats	223	12	0
Independents	1	0	0
Republicans	0	143	55
Total	224	155	55

 

This yet again shows us that there is an obvious clash between the Republicans and Democrats regarding this issue, almost rendering the idea of corruption in the presidential office a matter of party opposition, rather than sticking to facts and impartiality, regardless of whose fault this is. Whether the Republicans or the Democrats are right does not matter anymore, politics & law upholding in our country have become a matter of partisanism. A sad truth that cannot be changed, but regardless of my subjective opinion on this issue, let's stick to our report.

 

Public Opinion:

 

Immediately prior to the Trump–Ukraine controversy, polling indicated that support for the impeachment of Trump was below 50%. In the week following the launch of the impeachment inquiry, polling indicated support for impeachment had grown, with a plurality of Americans now supporting impeachment. A YouGov poll on September 24, 2019, found that 55% would support impeachment and 26% would oppose if Trump was confirmed to have pressured the Ukrainian government. A Marist Poll for NPR and PBS around the same timeframe found that a 50–46 plurality approved of the House's decision to start an impeachment inquiry. A Politico/Morning Consult poll released shortly after Pelosi announced her support for the inquiry found support for impeachment increased seven percent compared to the poll of the previous week. A Business Insider poll on September 27 found that 45% supported an impeachment inquiry while 30% opposed.

 

 

What Happens If The Impeachment Occurs?

 

As we all know, according to Article I of the United States Constitution. Any US official may be immediately removed from office if convicted by The Senate, and they may bar the removed official from holding any federal office in the future. To answer our question, we need to recall how impeachment works in the first place. Article I gives the House of Representatives the sole power of impeachment and the Senate the sole power to try impeachments of officers of the U.S. federal government. The impeachment process consists of two stages; the impeachment first, and the conviction last. Conviction during the second stage requires the concurrence of two-thirds of the members of the Senate present. Having established all of this, we need to look at who holds the House of Representatives, and who holds the Senate. The Democrats currently have a majority in the House of Representatives, making it fairly easy for them to pass an impeachment inquiry, however on the other side, the Senate holds a majority of Republican seats, something the Democrats would have to bypass in-order to convict President Trump. So at the end of the day, it is up to the Republicans whether President Trump is removed from office or not, however the Democrats may simply impeach him.

 

 

Written By: Avianna Wilson.

[Mitch]

Name: Hales
Comment: He won't get impeached, it might get past the HoR but it wont get past the Senate. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by Mitch

[TNG]

15 minutes ago, Mitch said:

He won't get impeached, it might get past the HoR but it wont get past the Senate. 

Name: A. Wilson

Comment: That's likely to be the case, and it's already mentioned down in the article. I appreciate your input though!

[Topinambour]

46 minutes ago, Mitch said:

Name: Hales
Comment: He won't get impeached, it might get past the HoR but it wont get past the Senate. 

Username: NGC6543

Comment: 

[Pádraig]

User: Michael

Comment: Refreshingly unbiased, the best way to get Trump out of office is by winning 2020...