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[Saints News] Would No-Deal Brexit Affect Us?


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Image result for banksy brexit

Banksy Art In Dover (Source: Daily Express)

 

Would No-Deal Brexit Affect Us?

What are the ramifications for Los Santos?

Kalani Jamil

 

While we may be five thousand, four hundred and thirty-seven miles away from the Palace of Westminster and the decisions it faces in the upcoming months, the grip that globalisation has on our world means that the possible ramifications of any decision could affect how we do business, how we trade, how we emigrate and how we, well, live. Brexit is no exception, either. While the original effects of the Brexit vote have been realised, as the Euro soared to $1.11 and the pound sank, causing a rise in the value of the dollar (which is bad for the stock market in the interests of foreign investment, as seen in 2016 with the Dow), we have yet to realise the true consequences of the vote, with the United Kingdom, set to leave the European Union on the 31st of October with a deal, or with no deal.

 

But that's all well and good - but how does that affect us? 

 

According to projections, a no-deal Brexit will cause a loss in confidence in the pound (£), already supported by the evidence that cabinet ministers are preparing for such an event (Source: The Guardian) in terms of Los Santos and the outer counties, we will see the cost of exports increasing, which could potentially lead to a drop in demand for exported products produced in the United States, and by extension, Los Santos. This is particularly effective as the United Kingdom is the fourth highest export partner of the United States. While Los Santos does not currently have a particularly large agriculture industry, firms producing jewellery, automobiles and other luxury goods may be affected.

 

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For investors? The effect is much more severe.

 

"Brexit is something that U.S. investors need to pay attention to since a messy Brexit would likely cause further economic weakness in the U.K and Europe, which hurts U.S. economic growth at the margin," said Christopher M. Ruth, senior portfolio manager for Key Private Bank in Toledo.

 

While it's unlikely a no-deal Brexit will cause such a turbulent shift in the economic landscape of Los Santos, a worst-case scenario could see a contraction in trade altogether between the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States, affecting economic growth within our own borders, which would affect your own wallet. If the impact is severe enough, and it may be, with the tariffs, trade wars and the soured relations between the United States and China and other Asian states, the European Union and the United Kingdom remain important trade partners. However, this remains unlikely as experts say that the effect of Brexit is not a big enough risk to actively cause a downturn in the American economy.

 

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But the news isn't all so grim - international businesses offering services in the confines of London may instead power the financial services served in both Los Santos and Liberty City, while that's unlikely to affect your wallet itself, foreign investment is good for economic growth, which is mostly a good thing to the majority of Americans. There's a very real chance that as the business confidence in the United Kingdom falls, the business confidence in the United States will grow, leading to more foreign investment, leading to more jobs in a multitude of industries, from skilled to unskilled labour.

 

In terms of immigration, very little will change, unless it is rehashed within the trade agreement produced after Brexit, the United States and the European Union do not have any agreements in terms of immigration, and while there are large amounts of both EU and British citizens currently living in Los Santos, they will not see a change in their status or residency rights as a consequence of a no-deal Brexit.

 

A prospective trade agreement hashed out between the United States and the United Kingdom may bring benefits for both - currently the UK is unable to hold their own trade agreements, and the European Union and the United States don't have an active trade agreement until further talks of TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) are held and signed on. This means that the USA and UK could eventually hash out a low-tariff or even free trade agreement, meaning that US businesses will have greater success exporting to the United Kingdom, and vice versa. This could spell good news for the people of Los Santos as exports will become much easier and, due to the nature of British service industry, will not result of an influx of British goods through the Port of Los Santos, meaning higher export profit margins for our cities' firms. 

 

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Ultimately, the effect that Brexit could have on Los Santos is still up in the air - while many businesses will be hoping for a particular outcome, another set will be hoping for another depending on the industry they're working on, either way, while the effects may be small on us as people and as citizens of Los Santos, they will most certainly be present due to the globalised nature of trade. 

 

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